The Conservative Case for David Jolly

I am a registered Republican who came of age politically as a teenager during the Reagan years and I recently voted Democrat for the first time ever.

For David Jolly.

What pulled me toward conservatism then is what still governs my thinking today: power rots the second it becomes unrestrained. Power is dangerous, and it should always have to answer to somebody. Preferably a lot of somebodies.

On Tuesday, Florida decides whether conservatism still means something like that, or whether it has degenerated into an unconditional loyalty oath to a single man.

A lot of Florida Republicans are looking at their ballots with a knot in their stomach. They see what is wrong with Byron Donalds. They know the Florida GOP would rubber-stamp anything he sent them. They also struggle with the idea of checking the box next to a Democratic ticket, worried that doing so means they have abandoned their values.

It does not.

What Madison Understood

When James Madison penned Federalist 51, he was not designing a system for saints. “If men were angels, no government would be necessary,” he observed. He defended a government designed specifically for the flawed men who actually show up. “Ambition must be made to counteract ambition.” The entire constitutional architecture rests on the premise that those who hold power will abuse it unless someone has the tools to stop them.

That distrust of concentrated power is the conservative core, keeping authority pinned down on a short leash.

Tallahassee or Palm Beach

The fundamental flaw in Byron Donalds is not personal charisma or experience. It is basic independence. I see his candidacy as an offer to serve as Trump’s chosen proxy in Tallahassee.

Here is the question every wavering voter must ask: Can you point to a single instance where Byron Donalds stood in front of a microphone and had the spine to tell Donald Trump no? I cannot find one.

By contrast, our current governor not only publicly criticized Trump’s handling of Covid, but also openly challenged him for the nomination in 2024.

Some voters tell themselves that Trump will eventually fade and that national vendettas will fade with him. But Trump lives right down the road in Palm Beach. I see no reason to count on his influence disappearing, and a Donalds administration would feel that shadow across the cabinet table every single day.

If Donalds takes the executive suite, I fear Tallahassee will import the corrosive factional politics of Washington, where your neighbor is treated as an enemy simply because he refuses to fall in line. That is not the Florida we currently have, and I’m quite certain not the Florida anybody wants.

We would also be subject to the same questionable judgement that has brought us destructive tariffs, unnecessary wars, and damaged relations with allies.

Data Centers and the Bill Nobody Can Guarantee

Conservatism also used to mean defending private property, respecting local communities, and asking what something would cost before approving it. Hyperscale data centers put those principles to a practical test.

Some of these facilities can consume millions of gallons of water a day, depending on their size and cooling systems. They also place substantial demands on the power grid. Where will the water come from? Can the grid handle the additional demand? Who pays for the expansion?

David Jolly has pledged a first-day moratorium on hyperscale data center construction while those questions are examined. His position is straightforward: understand the long-term costs before committing Florida’s resources.

Byron Donalds opposes a statewide moratorium. He favors local regulation and slowing construction, and points to water-permitting requirements as safeguards. Florida law also requires reclaimed water when specified conditions are met. Those protections matter. So does knowing whether they are sufficient.

But Donalds goes further on electricity, arguing that state law guarantees data centers will not drive up household electric rates. PolitiFact examined that claim and rated it Half True.

Here is the distinction: the law requires pricing rules designed to make large facilities pay their own costs and protects other customers if those facilities fail to pay. It does not guarantee that your electric bill will stay the same.

Those pricing requirements also cover only four investor-owned utilities, serving roughly 75 percent of Florida’s population. Municipal utilities and rural cooperatives fall outside them, although they can adopt protections of their own.

There is another potential cost: fuel. If increased electricity demand pushes fuel costs higher, utilities can seek approval to pass those costs along to customers. A data center can pay its own construction bill and still contribute to a higher monthly bill for you.

Asking these questions before handing out tax breaks and site permits used to be an automatic Republican reflex. Jolly is proposing a statewide pause to get answers. Donalds is offering an assurance the law does not fully support.

The Legislature Remains Solidly Republican

The hesitation voiced most often by uneasy conservatives is straightforward: Jolly is running as a Democrat.

That is undeniable. Jolly represented Pinellas County in Congress as a Republican, walked away from the party in 2018 over Donald Trump, and later registered as a Democrat. I will not pretend that distinction is meaningless, and I fully expect to disagree with him on policy from time to time.

Look at the arithmetic in Tallahassee. Republicans currently hold substantial majorities in both the Florida House of Representatives and the Florida Senate. If Republicans retain control, progressive legislation would need Republican support to reach the governor’s desk. The legislature will not hand a Democratic executive a blank check. Nor would his veto be absolute: a two-thirds vote in each chamber can override it.

A Jolly victory does not, by itself, usher in progressive legislation. I expect it to force open debate. It creates an opportunity for crucial issues like property insurance rates, infrastructure spending, and water resources to be openly negotiated rather than rubber-stamped behind closed doors. Bills will have to survive scrutiny on their merits instead of arriving fully formed from a private dining room in Palm Springs.

For the Uneasy Republican

A political party is a vehicle, not a church. You ride it as long as it carries you in the direction of your principles. When it veers off course and demands blind personal allegiance, you have every right to step off.

Choosing David Jolly over Byron Donalds does not turn you into a Democrat. It makes you a Floridian who weighed the options and chose the best candidate. That’s all.

Personally, I would rather spend four years arguing policy with David Jolly than four minutes watching Byron Donalds sign whatever the Mar-a-Lago bike messenger happens to drop on his desk.